THE SPORTS ADVISORS
ACC TOURNAMENT
(at Atlanta)
(22) Florida St. (24-8, 18-7-1 ATS) vs. (1) North Carolina (28-3, 11-18-1 ATS)
North Carolina, playing minus dinged-up point guard Ty Lawson, narrowly held off Virginia Tech 79-76 in Friday’s quarterfinals, falling far short of covering as an 11½-point chalk. The Tar Heels are now on a 14-1 SU tear, but they’ve gone just 5-10 ATS in that stretch, including dropping their last three ATS decisions. And the conference tourney has yielded similar results, as Carolina – which won this event the past two years – is now 5-0 SU and 0-5 ATS in its last five ACC tourney starts.
Florida State edged Georgia Tech 64-62 Thursday as a five-point favorite, which halted a three-game ATS upswing. The Seminoles are now 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) on neutral floors this season, outscoring their opponents by an average of more than seven points per game (71-63.75). Since 2006, FSU has gone a middling 3-3 SU and ATS in the conference tourney.
This will mark the third straight year Carolina and Florida State have met in the ACC tourney, with the Tar Heels winning the previous two years and going 1-1 ATS. In January, Carolina held on for an 80-77 road win but couldn’t cover as a healthy 11-point chalk, and the underdog is now 9-4 ATS in the last 13 clashes in this rivalry.
The Tar Heels have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight neutral-site games – mostly through their run to the Final Four last year – but they are otherwise on a bundle of ATS slides, including 0-6 against winning teams, 1-6 overall (all in the ACC), 1-4 after a spread-cover and 5-16 after a SU win. On the flip side, the Seminoles are on nothing but positive pointspread streaks, including 22-8-2 overall, 6-0 at neutral sites, 6-1 against winning teams and 17-5-2 in the ACC.
The over for North Carolina is on rolls of 5-1 overall (all in the ACC), 4-1 on Saturday and 12-4-2 at neutral sites, and the over is 2-0-1 in the last three meetings between these two teams. However, the under for Florida State is on streaks of 5-1 overall (all in ACC play), 12-4-2 on neutral courts and 7-1-1 with the ‘Noles a neutral-site pup.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA STATE
Maryland (20-12, 14-10-2 ATS) vs. (9) Duke (26-6, 15-15-1 ATS)
Upstart Maryland continued to make some noise in its last-ditch effort to earn a Big Dance bid, upending second-seeded Wake Forest 75-64 as a six-point underdog Friday, just 10 days after losing by a bucket at home to the Demon Deacons. With their second straight win and cover in the ACC tourney, the Terrapins are now 4-2 SU and ATS on neutral courts this season, and this marks the first time since 2004 that they’ve won more than one conference tournament game.
Third-seeded Duke narrowly dodged the upset against Boston College on Friday, winning 66-65 but failing to cash as an 11-point chalk after entering the tourney on a 5-1 SU and 4-1 ATS roll. The Blue Devils, now 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) on neutral courts this season, got it done against the Eagles by shooting nearly eight percent better from the floor, hitting 46.8 percent of their shots while holding BC to just 39 percent. In its four neutral-site contests, Duke has outshot its opponents 47.5 percent to 39 percent.
Duke beat Maryland SU and ATS in both meetings this season, trampling the Terps 85-44 as a 15-point home chalk in January and 78-67 as a six-point road favorite 2½ weeks ago. The Blue Devils are 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight clashes, going off as the favorite in all eight games.
The seventh-seeded Terrapins are still just 5-10 ATS in their last 15 neutral-site starts, though they sport positive ATS streaks of 7-3 against winning teams and 13-5-1 in their last 18 Saturday starts. On the flip side, the Blue Devils are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 Saturday outings and a dismal 10-21 ATS in their last 31 neutral-court contests.
The under for Maryland is on stretches of 5-1 overall (all in ACC action), 6-1 at neutral sites and 5-1 against winning teams, and the under for Duke is on streaks of 25-11 overall, 9-1 on neutral courts and 16-5 in ACC contests. In addition, the total stayed low in both of this season’s meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
ATLANTIC 10 TOURNAMENT
(at St. Louis, Mo.)
Temple (21-11, 17-11-1 ATS) vs. Duquesne (21-11, 14-11 ATS)
Duquesne, the seventh seed in the A-10, dropped second-seeded Rhode Island 78-74 as a four-point ‘dog Friday for its second straight win and cover, following a three-game ATS skid to end the regular season. The Dukes, who hadn’t played a neutral-site game all season until Thursday, have posted two wins in the A-10 tourney for the first time this decade, shooting a solid 51.9 percent from the floor while yielding 43.2 percent shooting.
Temple squeaked past top-seeded Xavier 55-53 Friday as a four-point pup, following up on its 79-65 rout of St. Joe’s a night earlier. The fourth-seeded Owls are now on a 4-0 SU and ATS surge, and they’ve also gone 4-0 ATS (3-1 SU) in their four neutral-site outings this season, by an average final margin of 71.2-64.8., shooting a mediocre 43.2 percent but holding opponents to just 37.8 percent from the floor.
In this season’s lone meeting, Temple beat Duquesne 78-73 on the road in a non-lined contest a month ago. In the six games prior to that, the two teams had alternated ATS wins and losses, with Temple going 4-2 SU.
The Dukes are now 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral-site outings, while the Owls are on ATS tears of 26-9-1 in the A-10 and 23-10-1 against winning teams.
The under is on runs of 6-1 for Duquesne at neutral sites, 4-1 with the Dukes facing a team with a win percentage above .600, 8-2 in Temple’s last 10 starts (all in A-10 play) and 5-2 for the Owls at neutral sites.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
BIG TEN TOURNAMENT
(at Indianapolis)
Ohio State (21-9, 15-11 ATS) vs. (7) Michigan State (26-5, 16-11-1 ATS)
Michigan State had yet another lackluster offensive effort Friday in the Big Ten tournament quarterfinals at Conseco Fieldhouse, but thankfully for the Spartans, their defense stepped up in a 64-56 victory over Minnesota, barely cashing as a 7½-point favorite. Michigan State has won six in a row and nine of its last 10 (7-3 ATS). Despite shooting 47.6 percent from the field (5-for-12 from three-point range) in Friday’s win, Michigan State was held to 64 points or less for the seventh time in the last eight games.
Ohio State all but locked up a berth in next week’s Big Dance by outlasting Wisconsin 61-57 on Friday, covering as a 3 ½-point underdog. The Buckeyes, who have won three in a row (2-1 ATS), shot an even 50 percent from the field (5-for-11 on three-pointers) while holding the Badgers to 36 percent. OSU’s three-game winning streak follows a 1-4 slump (2-3 ATS), and Thad Matta’s troops have now alternated spread-covers in their last six outings.
Michigan State has won three in a row in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), posting a pair of easy wins in January (67-58 as an 11-point home favorite and 78-67 as a three-point road chalk). The Spartans’ run against Ohio State began with a 67-60 victory as a 4½-point favorite in the quarterfinals of last year’s Big Ten tournament.
Although the Buckeyes have won six of their last eight tournament games, including the 2006 championship, they’re just 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games in this event going back to 2003 (1-4 ATS as an underdog. Meanwhile, Michigan State, which lost in last year’s conference tournament semifinals, has cashed in three straight in the Big Ten tourney (2-0 ATS as a favorite) after going 1-5 ATS in its previous six (0-4 ATS as a chalk).
Ohio State is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games at neutral sites (2-0 SU and ATS this year) and 4-1 ATS in its last five on Saturday. Michigan State’s ATS streaks include 7-3 overall (all in the Big Ten), 8-3-1 at neutral venues (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS this season), 6-1 on Saturday and 4-1 versus winning teams, and the Spartans are 10-2-1 ATS this season when laying single digits.
The under is on streaks of 36-15-1 for Ohio State on Saturday, 9-1 for Michigan State overall (all in the Big Ten), 5-1 for Michigan State on Saturday and 5-2 for Michigan State at neutral sites. Also, four of the last six meetings in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN STATE and UNDER
Illinois (23-8, 15-11-1 ATS) vs. (24) Purdue (22-9, 12-15 ATS)
Illinois, which ended the regular season with consecutive SU and ATS setbacks, snapped out of its funk with Friday’s 60-50 victory over Michigan as a two-point favorite in quarterfinal action. The Illini, who won their opening-round Big Ten tournament game for the 12th time in the last 13 years, led by just a single point at halftime, but came out of the break strong and finished shooting 47 percent from the floor while holding the Wolverines to 34 percent. Still, including the win over Michigan, Illinois has scored 66 points or less in 12 of its last 13 games, averaging just 57.5 ppg during this stretch.
Purdue also snapped a two-game SU and ATS slide with Friday’s 79-65 rout of Penn State, cashing easily as a 7½-point chalk. Although the Boilermakers have won six of their last nine SU, they’re just 5-7-1 ATS in their last 13, all in Big Ten action. Purdue has been incredibly inconsistent offensively over its last 11 games, scoring 61 points or fewer five times, but 72 points or more six times.
Illinois swept the season series this year, squeaking out a 71-67 overtime win as an eight-point underdog on Dec. 30, then rolling to a 66-48 victory as a 2½-point home favorite. The Illini have won and covered three in a row – including a 74-67 overtime victory as a 4½-point underdog in last year’s Big Ten tournament – and they’re 7-3 SU but just 4-5-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes.
Illinois, which lost to Wisconsin in last year’s tournament championship game, is 6-2 SU (4-4 ATS) in the Big Ten tournament since 2007. Meanwhile, Purdue on Friday advanced past the opening round of this tournament for just the second time in the last eight years, and it is 3-5 ATS in its last eight in this event.
Despite its easy spread-cover yesterday, Purdue remains just 2-4 ATS in its last six overall and 2-5 ATS in its last seven at neutral sites, and the Boilers are 1-6 ATS as a favorite of less than five points. Illinois is on ATS streaks of 5-0 at neutral sites and 7-0-1 on Saturday.
The Illini are on “under” streaks of 12-4 overall (all in the Big Ten), 6-1 on neutral courts (4-0 last four) and 16-5-1 on Saturday. Also, the under is 4-1 in Purdue’s last five on Saturday. However, the over is 6-1 in Purdue’s last seven at neutral venues and 4-1 in the last five in this rivalry, the lone “under” occurring in last month’s battle at Illinois.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ILLINOIS and UNDER
SEC TOURNAMENT
(at Tampa, Fla.)
Mississippi State (21-12, 16-10-1 ATS) vs. (20) LSU (26-6, 13-11 ATS)
SEC regular-season champion LSU topped Kentucky 67-58 Friday as a one-point favorite in its conference tourney opener, halting a two-game SU and ATS hiccup that followed a 10-game SU surge (6-4 ATS). It was only the second neutral-site game all season for the Tigers, who lost 72-61 to Texas A&M as a 1½-point chalk on a neutral floor in December. LSU has now won four of its last five SEC openers, but after past three wins, it has followed up with a SU loss (1-2 ATS).
Mississippi State rolled over South Carolina 82-68 Friday as a 2½-point pup for its fourth straight win and cover, including two games so far in this tournament. The Bulldogs are now 2-2 SU and ATS this season at neutral sites, averaging 71.5 ppg and giving up 65. During their current four-game run, though, the Bulldogs have put up 80.75 ppg – well above their season average of 74.6 – while allowing 69.8 ppg.
LSU has cashed in the last three meetings in this rivalry (2-1 SU), after a four-game ATS run by Mississippi State (3-1 SU), with the Tigers taking a 97-94 double-overtime win in February as a one-point road pup to sweep the season series SU and ATS.
Despite Friday’s win and cover, the Tigers are still on pointspread declines of 1-6 in neutral-site contests and 11-29-1 in their last 41 Saturday starts. Meanwhile, along with their current 4-0 ATS surge (all in the SEC), the Bulldogs are on a 4-1 ATS uptick against winning teams.
The over for LSU is on tears of 7-2 on neutral floors, 4-0 after a SU win, 9-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600 and 12-3 after a spread-cover. Furthermore, the over for Mississippi State is on rolls of 5-1-1 overall (all in SEC action), 5-0-1 after a SU win and 23-8-1 after a spread-cover.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in the last three meetings, with the February contest already above the 139½-point posted price at the end of regulation (72-72).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Auburn (22-10, 20-5 ATS) vs. Tennessee (20-11, 13-15-1 ATS)
Surging Auburn edged Florida 61-58 as a 3½-point underdog Friday, snapping the Gators’ 10-0 SU stranglehold in this rivalry. The win also gave the Tigers a 9-1 SU and a perfect 10-0 ATS record in its last 10 starts, all within the SEC. It was Auburn’s first neutral-court win in three tries this season (2-1 ATS), and the victory snapped an 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS slide in SEC tournament play.
Tennessee thumped Alabama 86-62 giving eight points Friday in its SEC tourney opener, quickly avenging a 70-67 home loss as a 13-point chalk in its regular-season finale last Sunday. The Vols are now 3-1 SU and ATS on neutral courts this season, averaging 82 ppg while allowing 71.8 ppg, and in Friday’s win, they outshot the Crimson Tide by nearly 12 percent (48.6-36.7).
In the lone meeting this season between these rivals, Auburn pulled out a 78-77 home victory as a 3½-point pup last month, which launched the Tigers’ current 9-1 SU and 10-0 ATS spree. The favorite, though, is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 clashes.
The Tigers’ 20-5 ATS mark for the season is No. 1 in the nation, and they sport additional positive pointspread streaks of 13-2 in the SEC and 9-0 against winning teams. The Vols, meanwhile, are still mired in ATS funks of 8-17-1 at neutral sites, 2-7 after a spread-cover and 2-6 in their last eight SEC tourney tilts, despite Friday’s blowout victory.
The over is 10-5 in Auburn’s last 15 neutral-site starts and is on a 4-0 run for the Tigers against winning teams, and the over has been the play in the last four meetings in this rivalry. But the under is on a 7-2 run for Tennessee, all in SEC action, with last night’s game barely eclipsing the 147½ posted price, and the under is 4-1 in the Tigers’ last five starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: AUBURN
BIG 12 TOURNAMENT
(at Oklahoma City, Okla.)
Baylor (20-13, 11-15 ATS) vs. (14) Missouri (27-6, 16-10 ATS)
Baylor earned its first-ever spot in the Big 12 Tournament title game with a 76-70 upset win over Texas, cashing as a 4½-point underdog. The Bears, who outscored the Longhorns by 12 point in the second half after trailing by six going into the break, put an end to their 24-game losing streak to Texas, 24 hours after they shocked top-seeded Kansas 76-70 as a nine-point underdog.
Missouri scored a 67-59 victory over Oklahoma State in Friday’s semifinal, cashing as a 4½-point favorite. The Tigers held the Cowboys to 35.7 percent shooting, including 3-of-21 from the three-point line. Mizzou, which trounced Texas Tech 81-60 as a 12½-point favorite in Wednesday’s quarterfinal contest, got 19 points from Zaire Taylor as it outscored the Cowboys by 10 in the second half after trailing by two at the break
These two met in Missouri back on Jan. 31 with the Tigers getting an 89-72 victory, cashing as 6½-point favorites. That spread-cover ended the Bears’ 8-0 ATS stranglehold in this rivalry (7-0 ATS as an underdog).
With the three tournament wins, the Bears have covered three straight for the first time this season. However, Baylor is still on ATS slides of 5-14 overall and 3-5 as an underdog, but they are now 5-0 SU and ATS on neutral courts this season and they’ve cashed in 14 of 17 neutral-venue contests. The Tigers have cashed in nine of their last 12 overall and 12 of 16 (all in the Big 12), going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite.
For Missouri, the under is 6-2 in its last eight neutral-site contests, while Baylor is on “under” streaks of 10-2-1 overall (all in conference) and 7-4 in its last 11 neutral-site games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI
PAC-10 TOURNAMENT
(at Los Angeles)
USC (20-12, 16-14 ATS) vs. (23) Arizona State (24-8, 18-10 ATS)
USC strengthened its case for an at-large bid to the Big Dance with a 65-55 upset win over crosstown rival UCLA on Friday night in the Pac-10 semifinals, covering the 6½-point spread from the start The Trojans, who can earn an automatic bid to the Big Dance with a victory over the Sun Devils, got 21 points from DeMar DeRozan and 13 points and 11 rebounds from Taj Gibson.
Arizona State reached its first-ever conference tournament title game with a 75-65 win over regular-season champion Washington, cashing as a one-point chalk. The Sun Devils shot 50 percent from the floor and got 24 points and nine rebounds from Pac-10 Player of the Year James Harden, while holding the Huskies to 36.5 percent shooting.
These teams split their regular-season matchups with the home team getting the win and cover in each contest. Arizona State scored a 65-53 win back on Feb. 15 as a 6½-point favorite while the Trojans got a 61-49 home win a month earlier as one-point home ‘dogs.
USC is 8-1 ATS in its last nine as a neutral-site underdog, but the Trojans are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 after a spread-cover and 2-4 ATS in their last six overall as a pup. Arizona State is on ATS runs of 8-3 overall (all in Pac-10 play), 7-2 in neutral-site games and 6-1 after a SU win.
For the Sun Devils, the over is 5-1 in their last six neutral-site contests. Meanwhile, USC has stayed under the total in 10 of 13 neutral-site games, but it is on an 8-5 “over” run, including 4-2 in the last six. The under was the play in both regular-season games between these two this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA STATE
BIG EAST TOURNAMENT
(at New York)
(5) Louisville (27-5, 20-11-1 ATS) vs. (18) Syracuse (26-8, 17-13 ATS)
Less than 24 hours after surviving a six-overtime contest to beat UConn in the Big East quarterfinals, Syracuse again had to play an extra period, but wiped out West Virginia in just one overtime with a 74-69 win as a six-point underdog to reach the conference title game. The Orangemen got 21 points from Eric Devendorf and 15 points from Jonny Flynn, who poured in 34 points in 67 minutes of play in Thursday’s thrilling win over UConn.
Louisville turned an eight-point halftime deficit into a 69-55 win over Villanova in Friday’s semifinal, outscoring the Wildcats 43-21 in the final 20 minutes and advancing to its first conference title game in its four years in the Big East. The Cardinals, who have won nine in a row (7-2 ATS), limited Villanova to 36.7 percent shooting and it was the second straight double-digit win for them in the tourney after rolling Providence 73-55 on Thursday as 10½-point favorites.
In their lone matchup this season, the Cardinals went to Syracuse and got a 67-57 win as one-point favorites. It was part of the team’s first nine-game winning streak (7-2 ATS) this season, and Louisville has won the last three meetings in this rivalry (2-0-1 ATS) while going 4-1-1 ATS in six clashes dating to 1998.
Louisville’s ATS runs include 37-16-2 overall and 41-12-3 in Big East play, but it is just 2-4 ATS on neutral courts this season. Syracuse is now riding an 11-2 SU and 10-2-1 ATS streak in Big East tournament action, and the Orange are also 5-1 ATS at neutral sites this season.
Syracuse has topped the total in 14 of 21 Big East games, including nine of the last 13, and seven of its last eight neutral-site games. The Cardinals have stayed under the total in its last three overall and six of its past eight neutral-site contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISVILLE
CONFERENCE USA TOURNAMENT
(at Memphis, Tenn.)
Tulsa (24-9, 14-13 ATS) vs. (4) Memphis (30-3, 21-11 ATS)
Memphis advanced to its fourth straight Conference USA tournament title game by trashing Houston 74-49 on Friday, easily covering as a 14-point favorite on its home court at the Fed-Ex Forum. The Tigers, who have won the last three regular-season and tournament titles in Conference USA, extended the nation’s longest winning streak to 24 straight games, with 19 of those being double-digit blowouts. John Calipari’s club has also won 60 consecutive league games.
Tulsa set up a rematch of last year’s tournament championship game by scoring a mild upset over UAB in Friday’s other quarterfinal matchup, eking out a 70-67 victory as a 1½-point underdog. The Golden Hurricane, who finished second to Memphis in the league standings, have won seven in a row – including Thursday’s 73-51 rout of Rice in the quarterfinals – and they’ve cashed in five of their last six.
The closest Memphis came to losing a conference game this year came at Tulsa on Jan. 13, when the Tigers made a last-second shot to steal a 55-54 win, failing to cover as a six-point underdog. However, in the rematch a month later at the Fed-Ex Forum, Memphis destroyed the Hurricane 63-37 as a 14-point home chalk, improving to 9-0 SU (5-4 ATS) against Tulsa since 2006. In last year’s C-USA title game, the Tigers pounded the Golden Hurricane 77-51 as an 18-point favorite.
Memphis is on slew of ATS runs, including 13-4 overall, 11-4 in conference, 12-4 as a favorite, 10-2 versus teams with a winning record and 6-2 on Saturday. Also, since losing to Syracuse 72-65 as a nine-point home chalk on Dec. 20, the Tigers are on an 11-2 ATS roll at home.
Despite getting killed by Memphis in the championship game a season ago, Tulsa is on a 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS run in postseason play, including winning last year’s inaugural College Basketball Invitational postseason tournament title. The Hurricane are also 4-0 ATS in their last four road/neutral-site contests and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on Saturday.
The under is 6-1 in the last seven series meetings between these squads (3-0 last three). Also, Memphis is on “under” tears of 18-6 overall, 10-4 at home (4-0 last four), 42-19 in conference play and 5-0 on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
MOUNTAIN WEST TOURNAMENT
(at Las Vegas)
San Diego State (23-8, 15-11-1 ATS) vs. Utah (23-9, 18-13 ATS)
San Diego State held off 25th-ranked BYU 64-62 as a 2½-point underdog on Friday to advance to its first Mountain West Conference tournament final since winning it all in 2006. The Aztecs have won five in a row and 10 of their last 13, and they’ve followed up an 0-6 ATS slide with three straight spread-covers.
Utah barely outlasted TCU on Thursday at the Thomas & Mack Center, prevailing 61-58 but failing to cover as a 9½-point favorite. But the Utes got back on track Friday, trouncing Wyoming 68-55 as a nine-point favorite. Utah has won three in a row 17 of its last 21, going 7-4 ATS in the last 11, and it has reached the conference title game for the first time since losing to New Mexico in 2005.
These rivals have split their last six meetings, with the home team getting the job done each time out. SDSU won this season’s first clash 72-63 as a four-point home chalk on Jan. 10, while the Utes scored a 67-55 win as a five-point favorite a month later. The Aztecs are 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings (3-1 ATS last four).
Despite winning and covering against UNLV and BYU the last two days at the Thomas & Mack Center, San Diego State remains in a 3-9 ATS funk at neutral sites. However, the Aztecs are 10-3-1 ATS in their past 14 Saturday outings. On the flip side, Utah is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 on Saturday, but 4-1 ATS in its last five on neutral courts.
For San Diego State, the under is on runs of 36-15 overall, 8-2 in conference, 4-1 on Saturday, 6-1 at neutral sites and 37-14 after a SU win. Similarly, Utah has stayed under the total in five of its last six games (all in conference) and four straight after a SU victory.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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